Citi lifts 12-month bitcoin target to $113,000 after summer cut

Citigroup raised its 12-month bitcoin price target to $113,000 on October 1, up from $82,000, citing renewed exchange-traded fund inflows and calmer regulatory nerves. The increase landed about three months after the same bank cut the number.

The target comes from a Citi Research note published Thursday and first reported by CoinDesk. Alex Saunders, the bank's decentralized-finance strategist, led the forecast. Citi also raised its ether target to $3,028, up from $2,240.

What changed in Citi's forecast

Citi gave three reasons for the move. Fund inflows had come back. The macro picture looked friendlier. And a run of SEC rule proposals had calmed the gloom that followed the Senate's rejection of the Clarity Act on September 15. Bitcoin rose more than 10 percent after that vote, Citi said.

Saunders pointed to the US Treasury's buybacks of longer-dated bonds, which steadied risk appetite across crypto. The bank wrote that steady rulemaking may stand in for the market-structure law Congress failed to pass. Citi did not say when within the year it expects the target to be met.

The timing fit a brighter week for crypto. Bitcoin climbed back above $86,000 on Friday as traders waited on the September US jobs report, helped by a wave of short liquidations and easing bond yields. Citi framed the call as a bet on slower but stickier inflows, with advisers and brokerages adding bitcoin in small steps rather than one rush.

Why the raise invites skepticism

Here is the catch. Citi has moved this number twice in 2026. Its base case opened the year at $143,000, then fell to $82,000 by July, a cut of $61,000, before Thursday's rebound to $113,000, according to 24/7 Wall St. A target that swings that far in nine months says more about changing inputs than about where the price will sit next autumn.

Citi's inflow math also looks modest. The bank expects about $5 billion of net ETF inflows over the next 12 months. Spot bitcoin funds pulled in $2.4 billion in a single week in late September, a pace Citi is not betting will hold. Saunders has called ETF flows the clearest read on real investor demand.

Rates are the other drag. The 10-year Treasury yield sat near 5.17 percent, 24/7 Wall St noted, and bitcoin pays no interest. When safe bonds yield that much, some buyers stay put. Citi's own bear case sits at $53,000, well below where bitcoin traded on Friday.

There is a longer risk too. A change of US administration in 2028 could unwind some of the SEC rules Citi is counting on, 24/7 Wall St noted. Rules made by proposal can be unmade the same way.

What to watch

Watch the flows. Citi set $82,000 as the line that matters. A fall below it would signal that the demand the bank expects has not shown up, 24/7 Wall St wrote. The next few weeks of ETF data will say more than any target.

Bitcoin traded near $86,682 at 13:21 UTC on October 2, according to Fortune, with ether around $2,751. Citi's number is a 12-month view, not a call on next week. Forecasts are not schedules.